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by Robert Prechter

30 octobre 2020

Hyperventilating pundits on both sides of the aisle have been touting the 2020 election as the most important election in American history. They are right. But their reasons are wrong.

Republicans are saying that if their party wins, their candidate will “make America great” for another four years. They are wrong about that.

Democrats are saying that if their party wins, it will transform America into a social utopia. They are wrong about that.

Why is it, then, that this election is the most important in U.S. history? The answer is: It will determine which political party will be thoroughly discredited.

No matter who is elected, the U.S. economy—and the world’s—is scheduled to undergo the biggest crash and depression since the country’s founding. It will begin in 2020 or at the latest 2021. Regardless of who wins, America will end up a mess, and the party that controls the government over the next four years will get the blame.

When the Republican party won the presidential election in 1928, its doom was sealed for a generation. The stock market crashed, and the Great Depression followed on its heels. The Democrats took control of the presidency and Congress in 1932 in what describes as “A Momentous Political Realignment,” and Republicans did not win the White House for another twenty years.

The peaking process in 1929 was of Supercycle degree. Today’s peaking process is one degree higher. The crash and economic contraction this time will be much deeper than those of 1929-1933, and the ramifications will be correspondingly extreme.

Musings on the Outcome You should root for the party you like the least to win the presidential election and for control of the House and Senate to remain split. That way, changes in government will be minimal, yet the party controlling the White House will be blamed.

If one of the parties wins the presidency and assumes control of both houses of Congress, its ultimate devastation will be worse, because the philosophy it implements unimpeded over the ensuing four years will be seen as the culprit for the depression. The 2024 election (presuming one is held) will usher in passionate proponents of its opposite.

Strange things could happen. The electoral vote could end up being evenly split, sending the election to Congress. The incoming House (not the current House) would appoint the President, with one vote per state. The incoming Senate would appoint the Vice President, with one vote per Senator. It is possible that the President and Vice President could be from different parties. If at any time a President were to die or be removed from office, the Vice President would become President. If both the President and Vice President were to die or be removed from office, the Speaker of the House would become President. Which party gets the blame for the depression could become dependent upon such vagaries.